Satellites, War, and Data: Who Wins and Who Loses?
If you are a commercial satelite data provider selling remote sensing data to the militaries of countries currently or soon to be at war, will your satellites then become military targets?
This thorny issue, discussed in the December 23, 2022 SpaceNews article Dark clouds, silver linings: Five ways war in Ukraine is transforming the space domain, is yet to be resolved. At minimum it is roiling the markets for satellite related insurance.
The potential targeting of commercial satellites by belligerents due to the increasing roles they play in military reconnaissance should be a legitimate concern for any company involved in the gathering and sale of any satellite data that can have both miitary and civilian uses. Also, if the satellites themselves are targets for being shot down, what about the users, purchasers, or licensees of the data generated by these satellites? Do they also become potential targets of military action (assuming they are not targets already)?
Such questions are one of the impacts of the realignment of international space efforts driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Companies and governments in the West realize that Russian launch capabilities are no longer secure. This is having negative short term impacts on Russia’s space-related industries while at the same time forcing Russia’s realignment with Chinese and Iranian space efforts. On the other hand, companies and countries in the West now have an opportunity to take advantage of the void left by Russia’s Ukraine-related space decline.
One country to look out for will be India which has tradiitonally straddled involvement with both Russia and the U.S. in military matters. If it is true that space related investment is an increasingy important economic growth engine in India, it will be interesting to see how India balances its military and technology ties with both the U.S. and Russia.
Copyright (c) 2022 by Dennis D. McDonald